December 2025 - Paul Zieba Dominion Lending Centres

Paul Zieba, Mortgage Broker | Edmonton & Alberta
December 10, 2025

The Bank of Canada rate hold December 2025 signals a major shift in monetary policy that impacts every Edmonton mortgage holder. After months of rate cuts throughout 2025, the Bank of Canada held the overnight rate at 2.25% today and declared it “about the right level” for the foreseeable future.

The Bank Just Told Us Something Important

The Bank of Canada rate hold December 2025 isn’t about what changed—it’s about what stayed the same. Furthermore, after cutting rates steadily throughout the year, the Bank is now saying “we’ve arrived at the right level.” Consequently, this pause matters more than most headlines suggest.

What the Bank Actually Said

Following the Bank of Canada rate hold December 2025 announcement, here’s what the data shows:

Economic Growth: GDP surprised higher at 2.6% in Q3, but most of that came from trade volatility. Final domestic demand was flat and is only expected to grow modestly in Q4.

Labour Market: Unemployment eased to 6.5% with three months of solid job gains. Nevertheless, hiring intentions remain subdued and trade-sensitive sectors are still soft.

Inflation: Headline CPI is 2.2%, close to target. However, core measures are still 2.5–3%. The Bank pegs underlying inflation around 2.5% and expects near-term “choppiness” from last year’s GST/HST holiday base effects.

The Critical Line: Governing Council sees the current rate as “about the right level” to keep inflation near 2% while the economy goes through a period of structural adjustment.

Translation: They believe they’re restrictive enough and are now watching to see if the existing level does the rest of the work.

What the Bank of Canada Rate Hold December 2025 Means for Edmonton

Stability Over Direction

The market has been trading on “what’s the next move?” for months. Today’s decision shifts focus to how long we sit here. Therefore, for planning purchases, renewals, and refinance strategies, duration of stability often matters more than another 25 basis points up or down.

Risk Profile Quietly Improved

With inflation near target and growth subdued, the bar for further hikes is now very high. As a result, the next meaningful move in 2026 is more likely down than up. Nevertheless, the Bank clearly isn’t in a rush to cut.

What This Means for Your Mortgage Planning

For Buyers: The Bank of Canada rate hold December 2025 gives you a clearer rate backdrop heading into 2026. Consequently, there’s less justification for “I’ll just wait and see what happens.” Additionally, if you’ve been sitting on the sidelines purely over rate fear, today’s message from the Bank is effectively: “We’ve found the right level—for now.”

Understanding how much house you can afford at current rates helps you make confident decisions without trying to time the market perfectly.

For Investors: You can model cash flow with more confidence around short-term rate assumptions. Furthermore, the stability window makes it easier to evaluate whether investment properties pencil out at current rates.

For Renewals: Those rolling off ultra-low pandemic rates over the next 12–18 months should approach mortgage renewals strategically, not reactively. In fact, this stability period creates an opportunity to optimize structure rather than trying to outguess each meeting.

The Edmonton Housing Market Context

Edmonton’s housing market has shown resilience through 2025 with balanced inventory around 3.5–3.8 months and steady pricing fundamentals. Therefore, combined with today’s rate stability signal, the local market gets exactly what it needed: predictability.

With average home prices around $424K and steady employment conditions locally, Edmonton continues to offer some of Canada’s strongest affordability among major metros. Additionally, rate stability removes one major variable from the buying decision.

Fixed vs Variable Rates After Today’s Hold

For those comparing fixed versus variable rates right now, the Bank’s message suggests less downside risk from choosing fixed and less immediate upside from betting on variable. Consequently, the decision comes down more to personal risk tolerance than rate forecasting.

Variable rate holders benefit from today’s 2.25% level immediately, while fixed rate shoppers now have more confidence that current 5-year fixed offerings won’t look dramatically worse than where prime ends up over the next few years.

How to Use This Information

Treat 2.25% as a working “base case” for the near term, not a brief stop on the way to rapid cuts. Use this stability window to optimize your mortgage structure rather than trying to time the market perfectly.

The Bank of Canada rate hold December 2025 creates a planning window that hasn’t existed since early 2022. Therefore, strategic decisions made now can benefit from reduced uncertainty around where rates are headed over the next 6–12 months.

Questions About Your Mortgage Strategy?

Current market conditions and the Bank’s rate stability signal create a clearer planning window for 2026. Whether you’re buying, renewing, or refinancing, let’s talk about what makes sense for your specific situation.

Paul Zieba – Edmonton Mortgage Broker
📞 780-619-4901
📧 pzieba@mortgageconnection.ca
🌐 paulzieba.ca

Market Updates | Paul Zieba | 3 Dec

Greater Edmonton Area Real Estate Market Report by Paul Zieba, Mortgage Broker

November 2025 Monthly Statistics:

New listings: 1,669 (-28.0% from October)
Sales: 1,163 (-19.1% month-over-month)
Average price: $424K (-1.1% month-over-month)
Median price: $410K (-1.2% month-over-month)
Active inventory: 4,451 properties
Months of inventory: 3.8 months
Average days on market: 46 days (41 days last year)

November Showed Classic Year-End Market Slowdown

November delivered exactly what we expect heading into the holiday season: both buyers and sellers pulled back significantly. In fact, new listings dropped 28% while sales declined 19.1% compared to October’s activity levels.

However, here’s the critical data point: both average price ($424K) and median price ($410K) declined only 1.1-1.2% month-over-month. As a result, this tells us the Edmonton real estate market softened in volume but held firm on pricing fundamentals as we close out 2025.

Inventory Remains Balanced at 3.8 Months

With 4,451 active listings and 3.8 months of inventory, Edmonton continues operating in balanced market territory. Therefore, neither buyers nor sellers hold significant advantage right now—success depends on strategy and execution.

Furthermore, homes are taking 46 days to sell compared to 41 days last year. Consequently, properties are moving slightly slower than November 2024, but the 5-day difference isn’t dramatic enough to signal fundamental market weakness.

New Listings Dropped Harder Than Sales

New listings crashed 28% while sales only declined 19.1%. Therefore, the 9-percentage-point gap suggests sellers exited the market more aggressively than buyers. In fact, this creates typical November seasonality as families focus on holidays rather than moving.

Nevertheless, with 1,163 transactions still closing in November, underlying buyer demand remained present at the right price points throughout the month.

Both Average and Median Declined Together: What This Means

Average price dropped 1.1% to $424K while median price fell 1.2% to $410K. Consequently, this parallel decline indicates pricing softness across all segments rather than isolated weakness in one price range.

Furthermore, when both metrics decline by similar percentages, it typically signals broad market recalibration rather than specific segment challenges. Therefore, the modest 1-2% decline suggests sellers who remained active in November adjusted pricing slightly to attract year-end buyers without panic selling.

Property Type Performance Shows Divergence

Detached homes led the market with average price of $545K (up 0.2% month-over-month) and median of $500K (up 0.6% month-over-month). As a result, detached properties proved most resilient through November’s slowdown.

Semi-detached homes averaged $420K (down 2.4% month-over-month) with median at $422K (down 0.2% month-over-month). Therefore, semi-detached properties experienced moderate pricing pressure.

Row/townhouse properties averaged $282K (down 3.5% month-over-month) with median at $275K (down 10.3% month-over-month). Consequently, townhouses faced the most significant pricing adjustment in November.

Apartment condominiums averaged $204K (up 6.8% month-over-month) with median at $187K (up 7.1% month-over-month). In fact, condos surged as the most affordable entry point attracted strong buyer interest.

Days on Market Increased Slightly Year-Over-Year

Properties took 46 days to sell in November 2025 compared to 41 days in November 2024. Therefore, homes are sitting 5 days longer this year, but the difference remains minimal in practical terms.

Additionally, the modest increase suggests buyers are being more selective rather than disappearing from the market entirely.

What This Means for Edmonton Home Buyers

With 3.8 months of inventory available, you’re operating in balanced conditions heading into December. Additionally, both average and median prices declining 1-2% shows sellers who remained active are pricing more competitively than they were in October.

However, inventory at 4,451 properties gives you reasonable choice without overwhelming options. Therefore, strategic buyers who move decisively on well-priced properties can find value as we close out 2025.

Furthermore, detached homes proved most resilient (prices up slightly) while condos surged 6-8% month-over-month. Consequently, entry-level buyers found strong opportunities in the condo segment during November.

What This Means for Edmonton Home Sellers

New listings dropped 28% to just 1,669 properties—creating significantly less competition than October. Nevertheless, sales declined 19.1%, meaning buyer activity slowed as expected for November heading into holidays.

As a result, pricing strategy matters more than ever heading into December. Furthermore, both average and median prices dropping 1-2% indicates buyers expect competitive pricing for year-end purchases. Consequently, sellers who price realistically from day one will capture the available demand while overpriced listings will sit through the holidays.

Additionally, property type matters: detached homes held strong while townhouses faced steeper adjustments. Therefore, understanding where your property type stands in current conditions determines your pricing strategy.

The Bigger Picture for Edmonton Real Estate Market

November’s data shows Edmonton’s real estate market entering its traditional year-end slowdown exactly as expected. In fact, both buyers and sellers pulled back as typical for late autumn heading into December holidays.

Nevertheless, the modest 1-2% price decline coupled with balanced 3.8 months of inventory suggests underlying market fundamentals remain healthy. Consequently, this isn’t a market correction—it’s a seasonal transition where volume declined but pricing stability endured.

Furthermore, with average days on market at 46 days (just 5 days longer than last year), properties are still moving at reasonable velocity for motivated sellers who price correctly.

Year-over-year sales declined 19.1% while new listings dropped 28%. Therefore, the supply-side contraction exceeded demand-side weakness, creating conditions where strategic participants on both sides can succeed heading into 2026.

Questions About Your Mortgage Options in This Edmonton Market?

Market conditions change month to month as we head into year-end. Therefore, let’s discuss how these November numbers impact your specific mortgage situation heading into 2026.